The global crisis of airlines

In mid-2006, in this blog published an entry on the relationship between oil and mobility, from an article by James Künstler, who posed the hundred years between 1950 and 2050 would be remembered as "the century of mobility." For Künstler, depletion of oil reserves will lead to a complete crisis of global paradigm of mobility, for the simple reason that there is no replacement for oil in sight, at least with similar costs.

But the airlines have not expected due to the depletion of oil reserves, something that will occur in several decades more. The increase in the values of fuel, largely due to increased demand by countries like India and China, has led the airline to a situation of serious crisis. While 40% of the energy produced in the world is directly dependent on oil, airlines no less than 90% of the energy consumed comes from that source. It is the second line on spending, after salaries and fuel prices have increased several times since 2000. The result: the airlines find it increasingly harder to make money without having to substantially increase the price of tickets, which would drop the demand. For now, are exploring all sorts of ways to increase revenues, but it seems quite likely that in the coming months to see ticket prices higher.

The serious problem with which we face is that, over the medium term, no one predicts that oil prices go down, and that will begin on a lasting impact on our travel habits. On the one hand, because much of the global production chain is based on economic costs of moving goods-something that we will talk tomorrow, and secondly, because it is obvious that the impact on the tourism sector will be very important. If fares begin to rise significantly and demand falls, a good number of destinations will begin to have problems in filling hotels and ensure sound economic activity for all businesses.

In recent weeks, we have seen several stories here and there about the millions who are suffering losses airlines, particularly those of the United States. While the price of oil has dropped a little, it seems quite difficult for businesses to return to earn money with the cost of a barrel over $ 100.

For now, we are witnessing a series of steps that seem rather isolated. Companies who charge up the water, which are strict with the weight of luggage or billed by the first bag, or you sell your headphones and a pillow. But all this seems the beginning of a deeper restructuring of the global mobility. If the cost of oil remain, not only we will have an important inflation around the world, we will also begin to see how certain patterns are changing mobility.